Why Trump's Agenda Is Making America Great Again!

Sounds like our President has his hand on the pulse of the world—‘bout time!!!
 
The author is Joel Ross, Principal, Citadel Realty Advisors, 15 West 36th Street, NYC, NY.  Mr. Ross publishes the Ross Rant, a $300 per year subscription newsletter, which makes predictions based upon economic data.Ross Rant  July 29. 

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To understand the trade war with China, you need to understand that China at the moment is having a major slowdown economically. The stock market is down 25%. Many banks are being bailed out by the government. Everything and everyone in China is way over levered, and the economy is therefore in a high risk position which the government was trying to fix.  The trade war got in the way, forcing the government to subsidize the smaller banks. China is loaning tens of billions to countries like Pakistan to build ports and railroads and infrastructure. Problem is, these countries have zero possible way to ever repay these loans.  So now they are faced with stopping the projects or asking the IMF to bail them out.

It is a mess for China and the countries who took the loans.  There is starting to be pushback against China for this. So, Trump’s timing to go after China is exactly right.  They are in a weakened position right now. Ignore all the hype about how they could sell their $1.4 trillion of US Treasuries —to who???  Not going to happen.  The whole world agrees China violates every rule on trade and steals IP.  Trump is just the only one who is willing to take them on with the rest of the world cheering him on from the sidelines.  Now it appears the EU is willing to cooperate with Trump and revise the WTO and to push China on IP and other trade violations.  Something they were never willing to do before.

Can 4% GDP growth continue?  Maybe. But 3.5% would be great.  Remember the left, and the press saying in 2016 and early 2017,  2% was the new normal maximum, and the US was at its peak and we faced stagflation, economic decline, etc. 2% was the accepted number as what good growth would be.  Larry Summers was right out there saying 4% was impossible.  Some in the mainstream media and Wall St said getting above 2% was pure fantasy, and Trump was dreaming.

So, as I have said often, ignore the talking heads, and the mainstream media.  They all have an agenda.  Almost none are objective.  The tax bill and deregulation was a huge boost.  The left just can’t admit it.  There are even stories now in the press that 4% is really a bad thing???  4% is great, it may not be 4% next quarter, but 3.5% would be terrific.   If Trump really does a deal with the EU, Mexico and Canada, and then Japan, 3.5%, or better, is very realistic.

Capital expenditures will ramp up further once the tariff issues subside and that uncertainty goes away.  They say exports were hyped due to pending tariffs, but to do that, inventories were drawn down, so this quarter inventories will be rebuilt, pushing up GDP growth upward.  The press does not want you to believe it because it means the Republicans win in November, so they will try to convince you otherwise.  Even my very liberal economist friends admit privately to me that the economy is going to be booming for at least 6 more quarters.  The key is to reelect Republicans to control Congress.

Keep in mind Maxine Waters is chair of the finance committee if the Dems get control, and Nancy is speaker.  Think about that combo, and the ability to get budgets and more tax reform done.  It should drive you to the polls and to take all your friends with you to vote.  What a trade Trump, and 4% GDP, or Maxine Waters.

If you want to understand Russia, and the whole gas pipeline issue--- gas and oil is 52% of Russia’s GDP.  The GDP of Russia is slightly smaller than NY State, around $1.5 trillion. GDP per capita is only $8,748 in 2017.  Far lower than in 2013.  We heard this first hand when I was in Russia, but now the stats show it to be true.  The standard of living in Russia is declining. 20% of the Russian budget goes to weapons and the army.

So Trump is right - how can Germany build a new gas pipeline with Russia which will fund more weapons spending, when they are supposedly having sanctions because of weapons and Crimea.  It is nuts.  The gas line will provide Russia billions of new cash flow for weapons which are aimed at ----Germany.  But Merkel also thought letting in over 1 million Muslims was also a great idea until the voters rebelled, and the rest of the EU voted right wing in response.

Reality is Russia is now in economic decline due to lower oil prices and corruption.  Defense spend was reduced this year.  So what does Merkel want to do – build the pipeline to pay them more badly needed money.  Trump is not out of line for his comments.  The pipeline is the same as Obama paying Iran $150 billion just as their economy was tanking.  Truth is Russia cannot afford to wage a real war in Europe now that Trump has forced NATO to materially up spending and readiness.

If Obama was still in power Putin could take over Baltic states and have only a few sanctions because under Obama NATO was militarily unable to react.  That was why Putin felt he could go into Crimea with no big problem.  Putin also knew he could continue his cyber war with no real consequences under Obama.  Don’t believe the crap about Trump favors Putin, or they have something on him.  It is more lefty nonsense.  The US pays 71% of NATO costs.  Germany pays less than 1.2% of their GDP for their own defense.  We pay far more for Germany’s defense than Germany does, and they can afford to pay.

Trump is right for making this a major issue.  So in 2018, NATO and the US are upping spending on defense and Russia cannot keep up.  Russia is forced to reduce spending because oil prices did not rise as much as Putin needed.

Under Obama US defense spending went down from 2013 on, and Russia went up a lot, and China even more.  Obama left us in very bad and weak shape vs our main adversaries.  It was massive US defense spending by Reagan vs Russia, that won the cold war.  The story now is very similar vs Russia and Iran.  The best way to win a war is to far out spend the bad guys until they fold with no shots being fired.  A strong offensive capability and willingness to use it (missiles fired at Syria) is the best defense.  Putin and Xi got the message.  Putin blew it by favoring Trump.  The last thing he wanted was a much stronger US military and stronger, capable NATO.

Iran’s GDP is $439 billion, less than that of 14 states.  And now it is tanking. Obama gave them $150 billion - 34% of their GDP.  Iran cannot compete with US and Israel.  Israel is much smaller by population and has a GDP of $320 billion.  With sanctions Trump is imposing, Iran is in real economic trouble, and cannot afford a war with us, the Sunnis and Israel.

The Obama nuke deal just empowered Iran to go on an expansion into Syria, Iraq, Yemen  and Lebanon.  Now Israel and the US are pushing back with the help of the Sunnis.  Reimposing sanctions will severely cripple Iran and they will likely try to attack shipping in the straits and the Red Sea.  It will end very badly for them now that the Sunnis, Israel and the US are teamed up, the US military is being rebuilt, Sadr is pushing back on Iran trying to control Iraq, and the Iranian people are protesting and ready to revolt.

The entire Mideast situation is going to change by year end when sanctions go back into effect.  Iran will run out of money to continue their expansion.  What is astonishing is Merkel and the EU prefer to try to get around the US sanctions and trade with Iran instead of cooperating with us and destroying the regime.  And the press thinks Trump acts badly with the EU???  The EU doesn’t pay for their own defense and they favor Iran.

The US economy is on a roll.  It will be strong well into 2019 and maybe into 2020.  The stock market will go up. Just be patient.  Bond prices will decline further.  All equities will continue to work.  They will resolve trade in the next 90 days.  Before November. NAFTA will get revised. WTO will get revised.  Putin is in no economic shape to invade anyone, or do another Syria.  He is now motivated to try to work with Trump.  If oil prices stay around where they are, Russia is hurting. Q3 GDP will be over 3%.  This is like under Reagan.

Trump will bury Putin in military spending and Putin will have to concede on some issues.  It will just take time.  It took Reagan three years.  If the result is no pipeline, Russia is in more trouble.  Farm products in the EU will still be a big problem.  Macron cannot give in on this and stay in office.  From here on it is all about China, and how Xi can give in and not lose face.

Bottom line, a very strong US economy and big defense spending will overwhelm Russia and Iran. A strong economy, allowing big defense spending, matters a lot in terms of geopolitics. The price of oil is strategic, not just economic.

Nicky Haley will be elected president in 2024   She will be the first woman president. Mark it down!

Pravda - Alive and Well in the U.S.

Driving home Sunday afternoon I was listening to the local radio. What I heard disturbed me.

The voice on the radio was reporting on the outcome of the jury decision of the Paul Manafort trial. A case which was about bank fraud and taxes from twelve years ago and in no way connected with Trump.

Yet, the wording of the report was such that it was leading the listener to make a mental connection to implicating that this jury's findings had potentially negative outcomes for the Trump presidency.

Such is the mode of operations today's MSM is using to propagandize the "outsider" who sits in the White House in Washington, D.C.

Asst. Attorney General, Rod Rosentein, initiated the special prosecutor, Robert Mueller, to investigate the "Russian Collusion" claim against the Trump Campaign and President-elect Donald Trump.

More importantly, Rosentein's language in creating the special prosecutor, gave Mueller - a long time friend of James Comey - a cart blanch directive; spelling out no specific crime or parameters to look for.

As a result, we have Flynn's destruction - even though the FBI investigators believed he never lied - Trump's lawyer, Micheal Cohen, who's sung to the southern District Court of N.Y. as a plea bargain, and now we have Manafort's demise of potentially facing the rest of his life in prison for something completely unrelated to the "Russian Collusion" allegation.

To make my point, check out this email message I received today from a long-time advisor to Donald Trump:

Fellow Patriot,

Robert Mueller is coming after me.

President Trump’s personal attorney, Michael Cohen, just made a plea bargain with the FBI after months of intense pressure...

... and I’m next on the crooked special prosecutor’s hit list because I’ve advised Donald Trump for the past 39 years.

I am being targeted not because I committed a crime, but because the "deep state"  liberals want to silence me and pressure me to testify against my good friend President Donald J. Trump.

Mueller thinks he can “flip” me against the President the way he flipped Michael Cohen!

Let me be perfectly clear.  I have done nothing wrong.  President Trump has done nothing wrong. And unlike some in the President’s orbit, I will NEVER roll on my friend.

This is a witch hunt!

Let me be perfectly clear; although the fake news media like CNN and MSNBC have harped on a false narrative about me and my support for Donald Trump, Mueller and his band of left-wing partisan prosecutors have found no evidence of Russian collusion or any alleged collaboration with Wikileaks on my part.

Now they are examining every aspect of my personal, private, family, social. business and political like to frame me for some non-existent crime to silence me and pressure me to testify against the President as Michael Cohen has done. I am not going to do it.

Roger Stone

Ladies and gentlemen, this is a clear cut case of legal abuse by the deep state and a propaganda war on those who aren't aware of what's been discovered regarding the actual corrupt source behind it all! 

Like I've said in past posts, what is going on here is a two-tiered justice system where volumes of indisputable facts have been uncovered as to the DNC and the Clinton Campaign cooked this whole thing up to use it against anyone associated with Trump in order to convince the public through the media that Trump doesn't belong in the White House because he threatens the Deep State's very existence in power and controlling the national and global agenda going forward.

WA State Supreme Court Ignores Own State Law

With every passing year Washington State elections are becoming more complex and perverted.

Years ago when Senator Dino Rossi ran for Governor against Christine Gregoire, a multiple re-count ultimately resulted in her winning because boxes of ballots were reportedly discovered in the trunk of a car; magically.

Now, with this coming mid-term election - often referred to by many in the media as the most critical one in our nation's history - initiative 1639 has once again become the legal battle.

Ironically, Washington State's Constitution has language which is stronger than our 2nd amendment in our U.S. Constitution. (See Section 24 - Right to Bear Arms.)

Over the spring, when 1639 began collecting signatures, 2nd amendment advocates vocally objected to it failing to follow the state's requirements for text content on the reverse side of the ballot; too small print, no underlining, no strike through of language for the law which would be modified.

A lawsuit was filed and a Thurston County judge declared a freeze be placed on the ballot.

Within weeks, if not days, the State Supreme Court last Friday ruled that the initiative would be on the ballot despite the fact that it did not adhere to the laws for initiatives' print requirements for signers to read and know what they were supporting.

The Second Amendment Foundation's Alan Gottlieb made the decision to file a lawsuit against the state's Secretary of State, Kim Wyman, to which the State Supreme Court declared Gottlieb as having no standing in the initiative issue; only Wyman does.

So, it appears that, with the preponderance of liberal voters in the state, the initiative will pass, which will alter the laws regarding firearms possession, and make existing gun owners liable for crimes by thieves who've stolen a law abiding citizen's weapon from either their home, or vehicle.

Question: How will this change anything for those criminals who acquire black market weapons to commit armed robbery? After all, isn't that the left's end goal with implementing measures like I-1639?

Liberal Lunacy

A 20-year-old Iowa student was found dead in a cornfield Tuesday after allegedly being abducted and murdered by a 24-year-old illegal alien.

And liberals must think we’re the dumbest people on the planet, because now, they’re claiming bad immigration policy didn’t kill Mollie Tibbetts – "toxic masculinity" did.

The Case For Separation of Illegals From Their Children

The following article, shared from an online friend, reveals just how opposite and deceptive the presses' reporting has become in defending the liberal left's agenda regarding this issue.

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Elian Gonzalez being seized by government SWAT team.

In March of 1993, The United States Supreme Court issued a ruling in Flores vs Reno. (Yes, Janet Reno, Bill Clinton's first Attorney General who ordered that young Elian Gonzalez be torn from his parents arms while hiding in a Miami closet. You might remember the iconic photograph.)

The Court decided that minors could not be incarcerated with the adults accompanying them across the United States border illegally. The decision was the result of a long dispute in how to best care for these children while the adults were detained for criminal proceedings.  You see, when aliens cross the border illegally, they are normally incarcerated until their criminal case is decided.

The understandable argument at the time was why should children be incarcerated while their parents are in jail. It seemed a fundamental violation of international human rights. Makes sense, right?  As a result, The Flores case drew a line in the sand. Children could not be incarcerated with their parents or accompanying adult while being held for illegal immigration violations. And a subsequent 1997 agreement stipulated that children must be placed in a safer environment where they could enjoy certain privileges, including education, a clean, safe environment and other normal life cycle amenities that incarcerated individuals do not enjoy. 

It was considered a victory for human rights. By separating adult and child, we protected the children, reducing any harm done to them for their parents or accompanying adult's decisions.

A lot has happened since then. However; bottom line, these juvenile, shelters have been operating in accordance with the law, and overseen by the Department of Health and Human Services to protect those children from the hazards of parental incarceration since 1997.

So, since Donald Trump was running his real estate empire, selling wine and casinos in 1993, we are left to determine just how he managed to orchestrate this cruel separation of immigrant parent and child 25 years BEFORE he was President of the United States. The obvious answer is, he didn't. He had nothing to do with establishing this United States immigration policy. Today, he simply enforces it.

This one story illustrates how important it is for us to do our research regarding today's headlines.  The Media either refuses to do the research, is incapable of doing the research or has done the research and decided to lie to you about its findings. Either way, this would make the Media lazy, incompetent or just plain deceptive. Liars, if you will.

Sexual Harassment - the Liberal's Cudgel

There are those men who view women as objects, or trophies, to pursue and control. Clearly, these types should be prosecuted for their effort to utilize their power over women. 

And then there are men who think nothing of the sort. 

Instead, this second type of men were brought up to be gentlemen who are courteous and considerate of women and to treat them with respect for the key role they play in the social fabric of a civil society. 

The only problem for this second category of men in today's liberal feminist world of obsession with doing everything it can to eliminate any vestige of former social norms of how "gentlemen" should act is that they are now being harassed, threatened, and persecuted.

I know... I've encountered this cudgel a few times in my life. My most recent got me terminated because I'd given a female associate a "peck" on the cheek in the joy of the moment of celebrating her 65th birthday... not exactly my idea of an act worthy of pursuing her for sex!

What makes things even worse for "gentlemen" today is that the law specifically states that it is the perception of the receiver of the action or comment, and not the intent of the giver in the exchange between two genders today which constitutes whether "sexual harassment" has occurred.

Now, any male who says to a woman, "My, you look lovely today!" is in jeopardy of being accused of sexual harassment. Where has the civility and decency gone?

It's clearly become a very one sided workplace over-reaction for women. Most large companies are completely paranoid of the legal implications which might arise from one of their female employees filing a lawsuit against them for not act swiftly and firmly. Thanks for nothing, lawyers!

When I heard in my employee training over the more recent years that this was now the case, I realized this was a perversion of the norm and a "perfect weapon" of the left to suppress free expression.

What, I thought, has liberalism become today that claims its ideology is against suppression while doing that very thing through the implementation of sexual harassment laws.

A more recent case of how this cudgel is used is Rep. Manweller's. He's currently dealing with the left's efforts via the #MeToo movement to sully him in the public's eye and oust him from his key role in the state legislature.

It's clear to me that this instance of alleged sexual harassment is nothing more than an attempt to insidiously get him removed in order to install one of their more ideologically aligned professors in his place.

Any thinking individual understands that there are legitimate cases where true sexual harassment occurs, such as the Weinstein case in Hollywood - along with many others who've taken advantage of their position of power and prestige which should be prosecuted, but in my mind, 90% of the claims are clearly frivolous, yet are treated as though it was on a par with actual rape.

And therein lies the real cudgel the feminists seek to exploit in order to feel they're winning.

In my view, it's only eroding the social courtesy that used to be a positive part of a civil society further.

This Is Justice?... According to Liberal Judges It Is!

With all that's going on with the leftists and media's "witch hunt" to take down Pres. Trump, one of the more interesting stories regarding the last presidential election has faded into the background, if not been totally forgotten. The MSM certainly won't bring it to anyone's attention.

Remember the IT aide for the DNC's congressional leader, Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, Imran Awan? You know, the one accused of money laundering, hacking into Congress's server and downloading truck loads of data to send it to a foreign middle-eastern country, but was caught at the airport attempting to flee the country with lots of cash?

Well, a liberal judge has decided in his case that he's "suffered enough already" and is letting him off the hook. For details on this injustice, check out this article explaining the case.  

This is what liberal justice looks like for those supporting crooked liberal congresswomen who kept him on the congressional payroll for months after he'd been arrested.

Why Michael Cohen's Plea Is A Joke

For those following daily the details of what Mueller's team of partisan hack lawyers have been doing with their "witch hunt" of finding "Russian Collusion", I offer my readers this link to a clip from Sean Hannity's show of yesterday, 8/21/18, and his guest, Mark Levin's explanation of how Cohen's plea is a Constitutional myth/fantasy.

It might, if you've not seen it, or need a refresher on this point, help clarify why these legal actions against anyone who has some connection, however remote that connection might be to Donal J. Trump, has absolutely no implications in any way to anything involving a "Russian Collusion", or "Obstruction of Justice" for Pres. Trump, or any of his campaign staff.

Feelings... Nothing More Than Feeeelings!

It seems some of today's college students feel they're correcting something by taking vandalism out on hunks of metal; once again!

While Chicago was reeling from another 60 people getting shot last weekend, a mob of “anti-racism” protesters were busy toppling a hundred-year-old Confederate statue in North Carolina, proving once again that social justice warriors would rather virtue signal at an ancient hunk of metal than address actual threats to minority communities.

Watch this MRCTV video of Brittany Hughes explaining how this action is part of the laziest "anti-racism" campaign ever!

Putting Our National Culture At Risk

The media narrative today is that America in the “xeno-phobic” Trump era is turning its back on new immigrants. But that narrative is sharply contradicted by the fact that the United States maintains the most generous immigration policies in the world. In this week’s new video, CRTV host and best-selling author Michelle Malkin explains how ill-conceived immigration policies threaten to destroy the American Dream for everyone.

A Tale of Two Individuals

Perhaps this story will adequately illustrate why I, who was the guy who didn't get recruited to a "big time" college because I chose distance running in cross-country and track during high school, feel the way I do about the current situation regarding taking a knee.

You 'graduated' high school in 2011.  Your teenage years were a struggle.  You grew up on the wrong side of the tracks.  Your mother was the leader of the family and worked tirelessly to keep a roof over your head and food on your plate.  Academics were a struggle for you and your grades were mediocre at best. The only thing that made you stand out is you weighed 225 lbs and could run 40 yards in 4.2 seconds while carrying a football.  Your best friend was just like you, except he didn’t play football.  Instead of going to football practice after school, he went to work at McDonalds for minimum wage.  You were recruited by all the big colleges and spent every weekend of your senior year making visits to universities where coaches and boosters tried to convince you their school was best.  They laid out the red carpet for you. Your best friend worked double shifts at Mickey D’s.  College was not an option for him.  On the day you signed with Big State University, your best friend signed paperwork with his Army recruiter.  You went to summer workouts.  He went to basic training.

 

You spent the next four years living in the athletic dorm, eating at the training table. You spent your Saturdays on the football field, cheered on by adoring fans.  Tutors attended to your every academic need.  You attended class when you felt like it. Sure, you worked hard.  You lifted weights, ran sprints, studied plays, and soon became one of the top football players in the country.  Your best friend was assigned to the 101st Airborne Division. While you were in college, he deployed to Iraq once and Afghanistan twice.  He became a Sergeant and led a squad of 19 year old soldiers who grew up just like he did.  He shed his blood in Afghanistan and watched young American's give their lives, limbs, and innocence for the USA.

 

You went to the NFL combine and scored off the charts.  You hired an agent and waited for draft day.  You were drafted in the first round and your agent immediately went to work, ensuring that you received the most money possible. You signed for $16 million although you had never played a single down of professional football.  Your best friend re-enlisted in the Army for four more years. As a combat tested sergeant, he will be paid $32,000 per year.

 

You will drive a Ferrari on the streets of South Beach.  He will ride in the back of a Blackhawk helicopter with 10 other combat loaded soldiers.  You will sleep at the Ritz.  He will dig a hole in the ground and try to sleep.  You will “make it rain” in the club.  He will pray for rain as the temperature reaches 120 degrees.

 

On Sunday, you will run into a stadium as tens of thousands of fans cheer and yell your name.  For your best friend, there is little difference between Sunday and any other day of the week.  There are no adoring fans.  There are only people trying to kill him and his soldiers. Every now and then, he and his soldiers leave the front lines and “go to the rear” to rest.  He might be lucky enough to catch an NFL game on TV.  When the National Anthem plays and you take a knee, he will jump to his feet and salute the television.  While you protest the unfairness of life in the United States, he will give thanks to God that he has the honor of defending his great country.

 

To the players of the NFL:  We are the people who buy your tickets, watch you on TV, and wear your jerseys.  We anxiously wait for Sundays so we can cheer for you and marvel at your athleticism. Although we love to watch you play, we care little about your opinions until you offend us. You have the absolute right to express yourselves, but we have the absolute right to boycott you.  We have tolerated your drug use and DUIs, your domestic violence, and your vulgar displays of wealth.  We should be ashamed for putting our admiration of your physical skills before what is morally right.  But now you have gone too far. You have insulted our flag, our country, our soldiers, our police officers, and our veterans. You are living the American dream, yet you disparage our great country.  I encourage all like minded Americans to boycott the NFL.

Here's a great video to watch on this topic.

National boycott of the NFL for Sunday, is November 11th, Veterans Day Weekend. Boycott all football telecast, all fans, all ticket holders, stay away from attending any games, let them play to empty stadiums. Pass this post along to all your friends and family. Honor our military, some of whom come home with the American Flag draped over their coffin.

8/23/18 Update: Here's the latest development on this issue from Bill O'Reilly's site.

Trump Demands ESPN Air National Anthem During 'Monday Night Football'
President Donald Trump's campaign is demanding ESPN show the national anthem during Monday Night Football games. On Wednesday, an email signed by the president was sent to supporters asking them to sign a petition. "I’m calling on you to join me in denouncing this SPINELESS surrender to the politically correct liberal mob," read the email, signed by Trump. ESPN president Jimmy Pitaro announced last week that the network will not air the anthem during MNF games this season, which has been the standard in the past. There may be exceptions as the season rolls along, but otherwise, the network will not show that portion of the game. CBS Sports will also reportedly not show the anthem portion of pregames. ESPN declined to comment on Trump's demand and petition.

Joke of the Day

 

Bill and Hillary are at a Yankees home game, sitting in the first row, with the Secret Service people directly behind them.

One of the Secret Service guys leans forward and whispers something to Bill.

At first, Clinton stares at the guy, looks at Hillary, looks back at the agent, and shakes his head "no".  

The agent then says, "Mr. President, it was a unanimous request of the entire team, from the owner  to the bat boy." 

Bill hesitates but begins to change his mind when the agent tells him the fans would love it.

Bill shrugs his shoulders and says, "Ho-Kay! If that is what the people want.  C'mere Hilly baby." 

With that, Bill gets up, grabs Hillary by her collar and the seat of her pants, lifts her up, and tosses her right over the wall onto the field

She gets up kicking, swearing, screaming, "Bill you"!$#@&!".

The crowd goes absolutely wild.  

Fans are jumping up and down, cheering, hooting and hollering, and high-fiving.  

Bill is bowing, smiling and waving to the crowd.

He leans over to the agent and says, "How about that; I would have never believed how much everyone would enjoy that!" 

Noticing the agent has gone totally pale, he asks what is wrong. 

The agent replies, "Sir, I said they want you to throw out the first 'pitch'."

An Intelligent Analysis on Climate Change

How Do You Tell If The Earth's Climate System "Is Warming"?

Francis Menton August 09, 2018

The earth's climate system "is warming."  True or false?  The answer is that there is no definitive answer.  And if someone tells you there is, then that person doesn't know what he or she is talking about.

A more precise answer to the question is that whether the earth's climate system "is warming" or "is cooling" entirely depends on who gets to pick the start date for the analysis.  If you are the one who gets to pick the start date, then you can make it so that the system is either warming or cooling, whichever you would like for your purpose of the moment.  

But of course, there are many people out there today with a lot invested in the proposition that the climate system "is warming."  That proposition is a key tenet of global warming alarmism.  To "prove" the point that the system "is warming," advocates use the simple trick of picking a start point to their liking, making for a presentation that appears to support their position.  Have you been fooled by this simple trick?  The advocates leave it up to you to figure out that if you picked a different start point, you could just as easily make an equally convincing presentation showing that the climate system "is cooling."  A lot of seemingly intelligent people can't figure that out, and get taken in by the scam.

I raise this point today because it appears that, as part of the campaign to suppress disfavored political speech, Google has begun within the past few days adding a legend at the bottom of YouTube videos that express politically incorrect views in the field of climate science.  For example, here is the legend that they have added to a video made for Prager University by eminent MIT atmospheric physicist and climate skeptic Richard Lindzen:

"Multiple lines of scientific evidence show that the climate system is warming."

The quote comes from the first two sentences of this Wikipedia entry with the title "Global warming."   Well, Wikipedia says it, so I guess it must be true!

According to this post at BuzzFeed on August 7, others who have been subject to having the same legend affixed to their work include Tony Heller of the Deplorable Climate Science Blog, Mark Morano of Climate Depot, and the Heartland Institute.  (So far, nothing comparable has happened to the Manhattan Contrarian; but then, I don't make YouTube videos.)

So let's investigate the question of whether the earth's "climate system" is or is not warming.  You could, for example, look at the chart presented by Wikipedia in that entry.  Here it is:

That looks rather dramatic.  On the other hand, the whole vertical scale of the chart is only about 1.5 deg C; and they picked 1880 as their start date.  (The slope here is also greatly accentuated by some very large and questionable "adjustments" that have made earlier years cooler and more recent years warmer.  You can read my eighteen part series "The Greatest Scientific Fraud Of All Time" for much more detail.  But those details are not critical for understanding the current issue.)

Does your skeptical mind possibly think, when they use that phrase "century scale," is that just a bias-free description of the issue at hand, or is it instead a hand-wave to provide a fake justification for picking a preferred start date?  Why do we need to go back 138 years when we are considering a question phrased in the present tense -- whether the climate "is" warming?  Wouldn't the present tense normally be used to cover a much shorter period, like a year or two or three at most?  So you ask, what has the climate system been doing during that time?  For the answer, how about looking for temperature data to the far more accurate UAH satellite-based serieswhich provides monthly data points going back to 1979.  Here is the latest chart from that source:

This time, you get to pick the start date.  To cover the last few years, how about picking early 2016?  After all, these last couple of years should be a much better indicator of whether the climate "is" warming or cooling than the entire last 138 years.  Really, what do temperatures more than 100 years ago, or even 30 or 40 years ago, have to do with the question of whether the earth's climate "is" warming?  So we look at the UAH chart, and we find our answer: since early 2016 temperatures have fallen by more than 0.5 deg C.  Thus, once we get to pick our preferred start time, it is obvious that the climate system "is cooling."  

Or, you can pick a different start date to your liking.  How about 1998?  That will give you an entire 20 year run.  It's hard to say that the verb "is" should cover a period of more than 20 years.  On the UAH series you can see that temperatures have also fallen about 0.4 deg C since early 1998.  Again, even on this substantially longer scale, the earth "is cooling."  (Note, however, that there is a significant difference between the Wikipedia chart and the UAH satellite series as to what has happened since 1998.  On the Wikipedia chart the latest reading (2017?) is up about 0.3 deg C from 1998; while on the UAH series, the latest reading (July 2018) is down about 0.4 deg C from the then-records set in 1998.  That's those "adjustments" in the surface temperature record that I was talking about.  I would say that there is no credible position that the heavily adjusted surface temperature record that Wikipedia relies on should be used for this purpose over the far more accurate and un-tampered UAH satellite record.)

But how about if we decide that there is something to this "century-scale" thing?  Let's agree that we're going to go back many, many decades to determine if the earth "is warming."  But if we're going to do that, where do we stop?  If you want, you can go back a hundred million years; or even a billion.  And if you follow this subject a little, you probably know that the 1700s and 1800s are a very suspect era to start a series like this, because those centuries are a known cold period sometimes referred to as the "Little Ice Age."  Picking a date in the "Little Ice Age" as the start point to prove warming is what's called "cheating."  Let's pick something more fair.  How about going back a nice round millennium?  Was that time warmer or cooler than now?

OK, they didn't have networks of thermometers set up around the globe in the 11th century, let alone the highly accurate satellites that we have today.  But scores of scientists have done hundreds of studies based on many sorts of "proxies" to determine at least whether it was warmer or cooler at that time than today.  It turns out that the evidence is rather overwhelming that it was warmer.  Actually, this is what is known as the "Medieval Warm Period."  But picking a date in that period as your start date for deciding whether the earth "is warming" is no more fair or unfair than picking a date in the "Little Ice Age."  

Here is a compilation of dozens of studies reaching the conclusion that the Medieval Warm Period was warmer than the present:  "More than 700 scientists from 400 institutions in 40 countries have contributed peer-reviewed papers providing evidence that the Medieval Warm Period was real, global, & warmer than the present."  Examples:

• "Paper finds Medieval Warm Period in Arctic was much warmer than the present."  
• "Medieval Warming Exceeds Modern Warming, Per New Research Using 120 Proxies."   
• "Earth was warmer in Roman and Medieval Times say German researchers." 

There are literally dozens more, if you follow the links.  The conclusion is inescapable: on a centuries-scale basis, the earth's climate system "is cooling."

And by the way, if you want to keep going back farther and farther, you can keep finding time periods that were warmer than the present.  Examples:  the Roman Warm Period, from around 250 BC to 450 AD; and the Holocene Climate Optimum, about 5000 to 3000 BC.

So here's the real answer to the question of whether the earth's ciimate system "is warming":  

• If your start date is June 2018, it "is warming."
• If your start date is January 2016, it "is cooling."
• If your start date is January 1998, it "is cooling."
• If your start date is 1880, it "is warming."
• If your start date is the year 1000, it "is cooling."
• If your start date is the Dark Ages, it "is warming."
• If your start date is Roman times, it "is cooling."

In short, the question is completely meaningless.

It's hard to believe that the supposed geniuses at Google could be taken in by a scam so obvious and so transparent.

But that's the world we live in.

What Was the Cold War?

Having grown up and lived the majority of my life during this period in international history, I can personally attest to the veracity and accuracy of this presenter's account of what the cold war was actually about; something most millennials know very little, to nothing about because our public education system doesn't teach it much anymore.

Some of my prior posts have shared how many of the tactics and strategies used by Stalin, Kruschev, and other communist leaders used to impose tyranny on their people, we are seeing today many similar tactics and strategies being disseminated through our colleges and universities today; promoting propaganda about the virtues of socialism (communism without a gun to one's head) and the degrading lies about how the United States was horrible throughout its history as a capitalist nation. (Just think Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez who has recently become the new face of the Democrat Party.)

Prager U's latest video provides a brief overview of what occurred. I would recommend viewing this short piece at least two or three times so that one can really grasp the complexity of what's revealed here. It may provide a broader context about what's going on now in international foreign relations.

To Kill An American

You probably missed this in the rush of news, but there was actually a report that someone in Pakistan had published in a newspaper, an offer of a reward to anyone who killed an American; any American. 

So an Australian dentist wrote an editorial the following day to let everyone know what an American is. So they would know when they found one. (Good one, mate!!!!) 

'An American is English, or French, or Italian, Irish, German, Spanish , Polish, Russian or Greek. An American may also be Canadian, Mexican, African, Indian, Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Australian, Iranian, Asian, or Arab, or Pakistani or Afghan. 

An American may also be a Comanche, Cherokee, Osage, Blackfoot, Navaho, Apache, Seminole or one of the many other tribes known as native Americans. 

An American is Christian, or he could be Jewish, or Buddhist, or Muslim. In fact, there are more Muslims in America than in  Afghanistan. The only difference is that in America they are free to worship as each of them chooses.

An American is also free to believe in no religion...... For that he will answer only to God, not to the government, or to armed thugs claiming to speak for the government and for God.   

An American lives in the most prosperous land in  the history of the world.

The root of that prosperity can be found in the Declaration of Independence , which recognizes the God-given right of each person to the pursuit of happiness. 

An American is generous. Americans have helped out just about every other nation in the world in their time of need, never asking a thing in return........

When Afghanistan was overrun by the Soviet army 20 years ago, Americans came with arms and supplies to enable the people to win back their country!

As of the morning of September 11, Americans had given more than any other nation to the poor in Afghanistan .. 
The national symbol of America , The Statue of Liberty , welcomes your tired and your poor, the wretched refuse of your teeming shores, the homeless, tempest tossed. These, in fact, are the people who built America .

Some of them were working in the Twin Towers the morning of September 11 , 2001 earning a better life for their families. It's been told that the World Trade Center victims were from at least 30 different countries, cultures, and first languages, including those that aided and abetted the terrorists.

  
So you can try to kill an American if you must.. Hitler did. So did General Tojo , and Stalin , and Mao Tse-Tung, and other bloodthirsty tyrants in the world. But, in doing so you would just be killing yourself . Because Americans are not a particular people from a particular place. They are the embodiment of the human spirit of freedom. Everyone who holds to that spirit, everywhere, is an American.